PDF Ebook , by Harry S. Dent Andrew Pancholi
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, by Harry S. Dent Andrew Pancholi
PDF Ebook , by Harry S. Dent Andrew Pancholi
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Product details
File Size: 15716 KB
Print Length: 333 pages
Publisher: Portfolio (November 14, 2017)
Publication Date: November 14, 2017
Sold by: Penguin Group (USA) LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B0755V9481
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There is very little new information here. If you are looking for specific investment recommendations in terms of how to benefit from a major market correction, look elsewhere. Otherwise, there are some good historical nuggets here that offer insight into past market corrections. I would say it’s a moderately entertaining read if you can pick up a used copy on the cheap, but disappointing if you pay full price for a new copy.
In their previous work on Demographics the authors predicted doom, gloom and eventual boom.Here we are at the beginning of 2018. The world is not on fire, the markets are still way over any CAPE trend value and confidence is climbing.Winter is coming. These guys see that, but like the rest of us, they can not say when.Deleverage now, but don't despair quite yet. Wait for the yield curve to invert or for the Fed to foul the elections this coming Fall. Then make your best guess.
I love Harry. I think his demographics arguments are great for analyzing the state of the economy. However, I am not so sure demographics is best for explaining the stock market. Further, with the internet and modern competitive capitalism things change faster than in the past. We may be already passed the period that these cycles were useful. They may have to be updated as our economic life speeds forward. We’ll see!
Dent is basically an economist with an emphasis in investments. He starts the book with a mind-numbing number of various economic, political, and social cycles which produce an even larger mind-numbing number of dates. The theory is that all these cycles converge at the same time about every 250 years to produce revolutionary economic, political, and social upheavals.Starting with Luther's Reformation of 1517 we have a revolutionary upheaval that divided Europe into Protestant and Catholic sections. About 250 years later in 1776 we got the American Revolution which ushered in major political (democracy), economic (free enterprise), and social (industrial revolution) changes. This system has been in place for 242 years and Dent predicts a major financial crisis sometime between 2017 and 2020 which will produce new changes. Dent says the 2016 Brexit vote and the Trump election are just the beginning of the coming revolution.Whether you believe in cycles or not there is no doubt that we are in troubled times. Social unrest is increasing, public anger is increasing, political polarization is increasing and the whole system is sinking into greater debt. Total debt in America including government, business, and personal debt is approaching $70 trillion but no one seems to know the exact number.We are definitely in an anti-establishment rebellion against the elites who run government and business with top-down management which has been facilitated by computers. Dent believes the coming social revolution will change society into one that is bottom-up with a networking model of business where every employee will be a business, meaning that employees will have the power to be like entrepreneurs and create business practices on their own. This model will spread to all of society which will be more productive because more egalitarian, democratic, inclusive, and decentralized.As Dent notes, economic crashes tend to happen in October. It is now almost a year from when Dent thought we may have a crash in late 2017 and the next October is only a few months away. The current economic expansion will be the longest in history in about a month and it will be hard to keep it going. So Trump has an extremely difficult challenge ahead of him. He has been able to stimulate business with cuts in taxes and regulations but it is not certain how long this stimulation can last. The Democrats of course are doing everything they can to obstruct anything he does.Trump's current move is to counter foreign tariffs with American tariffs and the media constantly reports that these tariffs will hurt American consumers. There is no appreciation that American business can replace any foreign goods with American made goods, that this will increase employment, or that domestic competition can the lower prices of these substitute goods. So we will have to wait and see if America can keep its economic expansion going or if Dent's cycles will take over.
Must read for caution in your financial future. While Harry is not always right, you cannot ignore the demographics impact on our economy. History repeats itself and if you survived that recent US financial crash you will understand the house of cards will once again fold. Be careful what cards you are holding when it takes another crash.
Demographic and cyclical data presentation in a way that everyone can understand.
Interesting, but a bit sensational......maybe occur, but future hard to predict.....good for awareness of the world around us.
I have read most if what Harry Dent has written. This is not his best book. His remarks in the first third of the book seemed uncharacteristically juvenile, and he seemed to want to push a liberal philosophy. It got better towards the last two-thirds, more like his old self. Compared to Jim Rickards’ “The Road to Ruin†it compares badly. But his simpler approach may appeal to some people who have not read much on this subject before. A great exercise to “compare and contrast†the two approaches to a similar subject.
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